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IRAN, U.S.: CONCILIATORY STATEMENTS SIGNAL SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS
Summary Senior Iranian officials issued unusually positive statements July 2, on both the nuclear issue and the subject of U.S.-Iranian relations.Stratfor has been expecting Iran to at least move towards some semblance of a settlement on Iraq and the nuclear issue in 2008. We also would not be surprised if a deal also entailed improvedU.S.-Iranian relations.
Analysis Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said July 2 that a new trend has emerged in negotiations regarding his country’s controversial nuclear program. He added that Iran will be sending a formal response to the offer from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany in a few weeks. Mottaki, who is in New York to attend a U.N. meeting, added that his government would consider the suggestion of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on opening a U.S. interests section in Tehran. Meanwhile, Ali Akbar Velayati, the international affairs adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the offer from the West was acceptable to Iran in principle.
These statements are the most positive to emanate from the Iranian leadership to date that indicate a breakthrough in the deadlock might be in the pipeline.
It should be noted that the two officials represent both elements of ran's leadership. Mottaki is part of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Cabinet, while Velayati speaks on behalf of the Iranian clerical establishment, the ultimate rulers of the Islamic republic. Mottaki’s comments that American and Iranian people need to get to know each other better is extremely significant in that it is just short of saying the two states should put the past behind them.
This development is in keeping with Statfor’s annual and second quarter forecasts and numerous other reports we have published in recent years about how the United States and Iran are rapidly approaching an understanding on the various contentious issues between them. At a time when the media has been flooded with reports of an impending U.S. and/or Israeli attack on Iran and the chaos that would result, these reports of impending doom have masked the real action, which is occurring in back-channel negotiations. The bellicose posturing by both sides is part of the process to shape the behavior of the other side; the intensification of rhetoric signals that the talks are heating up.
At this stage there are not many details to shed light on what is happening behind the scenes and gauge the exact level of progress. The statements from Mottaki and Velayati strongly indicate that Washington and Tehran could be nearing a compromise of sorts. Ofcourse, given the various moving parts in this dynamic there is a lot of room for things to go wrong, leading to delays. What is certaincthough is that both sides have agreed to come to terms.
Just how they go about doing that remains to be sorted out, however. We do not expect any Camp-David type ceremonies. Washington and Tehran have agreed to move ahead, but it will take time for the idea of compromise to be sold on their respective home fronts. Copyright 2008 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.