GEOPOLITICAL DIARY: CRISES WITHIN ISRAEL AND IRAN

Internal political problems intensified in two key Middle Eastern countries today. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak called for the resignation of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is defending himself against charges that he accepted money illegally. In Iran, Ali Larijani was elected speaker of the parliament. Larijani -- who served as Iran's national security chief -- resigned as chief negotiator on nuclear issues in October, in what has been seen as disagreements with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's approach to the negotiations. Commentators also read Larijani's election as a rebuke from parliament and some of the senior clergy over Ahmadinejad's handling of the economy. Olmert and Ahmadinejad are -- with more than a little irony -- in similar situations. They are trying to execute complex foreign policies while under intensifying domestic political attack.Both crises come at critical geopolitical junctures. Israel is in the midst of negotiations with Syria and with the Palestinians. The Kadima Party, which Olmert leads, was created by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon as a vehicle for redefining the Israeli posture toward the Palestinians and the region. Sharon had weight and credibility in this process because he came from the right and because he was a soldier. Olmert never had Sharon's authority, which always placed him at a disadvantage in this process, particularly after the 2006 war in Lebanon. Israelis are obviously divided on the negotiations, and Kadima is in a coalition. That means not only that the charges further undermine his authority, but also that Barak's decision to call for his resignation threatens the coalition. It is hard to see how Olmert can act decisively in negotiations that will be extremely divisive in Israel when he is personally weak and his coalition partner wants his resignation.Ahmadinejad's problems come from two different directions. The first is economic. Iran's economy has not improved in the face of higher oil prices. Where Iran should be booming, it is actually importing gasoline and storing unattractive grades of crude on tankers. One of Ahmadinejad's tasks was to revive the Iranian economy. He hasn't done that, and Larijani's selection indicates that parliament is unhappy. We noted a few weeks ago that mainstream clerics were attacking the president as well for overstepping his bound as a layman.This also comes at a time when the International Atomic Energy Agency is charging Iran with withholding critical information on its nuclear program. It was never clear what Larijani's personal views were, or whether they were different from Ahmadinejad's on long-term nuclear development. But his resignation as negotiator indicated that he was not happy with Ahmadinejad's position at least on tactics.At the moment, both Olmert and Ahmadinejad are in compromised political positions. Their authority within their governments is being questioned and therefore their ability to act authoritatively internationally is weakened. Both face critical issues. Israel must have a coherent policy on its negotiations. Iran must define its policy on Iraq in the face of the growing economic power -- and therefore political influence -- of Saudi Arabia, which has made the most of high oil prices.At the moment, it is increasingly likely that both Israel and Iran will be in a state of internal political uncertainty for the coming months. That means that shifts in foreign policy will be increasingly difficult for both leaders to execute. It is hard to play geopolitical hardball when it's apparent that you do not have the power to carry the political system with you. How does Israel negotiate with Syria under these circumstances? How does Iraq deal with the growing influence of the Sunnis of the Arabian Peninsula, back in alignment with the United States?Israel and Iran stand at opposite ends of the region. They are hostile to each other. That hostility, to some extent, defines the region. If these two countries become paralyzed by internal political issues, that will change the dynamics of the region. Among other things, by default, it will increase the strength of the Saudis even more than money has.
Copyright 2008 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.